The Russian army is depleted, and even if the Kremlin achieves victory, Putin will need to significantly rebuild and restructure his military forces for new aggressive actions.
The publication Business Insider references a new analytical study conducted by the RAND Corp., outlining four potential scenarios for the future of the Russian army.
The first scenario, referred to as the "Shoigu plan," envisions restoring the army to the state it was in prior to the full-scale invasion of Ukraine. This entails an attempt to balance troop numbers with firepower, compensating for the lack of modern technology through imports.
"The most striking aspect is that the plan assumes the Russian army is largely in good shape, despite evidence to the contrary in Ukraine," the publication states.
The second scenario involves implementing the 2008 reforms proposed by then-defense minister Anatoly Serdyukov. This plan suggests a shift to a more compact yet professionally trained army, capable of hybrid warfare and utilizing private military companies. However, analysts note that such an approach may not provide sufficient ground forces to expand Russian influence.
The third option entails a complete departure from Soviet warfighting traditions and a transition to a new military model based on Western approaches. Nevertheless, analysts consider this scenario the least likely. Finally, the most probable outcome is a return to Soviet standards.
"The main argument in favor of this path is that Russian military forces have, in many ways, had to revert to this model during the war in Ukraine, relying on older systems, predominant firepower, and mass — and while this did not lead to a decisive victory for Russia in Ukraine, it was sufficient to reach a stalemate."
Source: businessinsider .