On December 16, 2024, the Bundestag expressed a vote of no confidence in Chancellor Olaf Scholz, leading to the collapse of the ruling coalition.
Amid this instability, the popularity of the right-wing populist party AfD is rising, significantly strengthening its position in polls.
If the CDU comes to power, policies may shift, but likely not dramatically, as there is broad support for Ukraine among German political forces. However, the growing popularity of the AfD, which opposes aid to Ukraine, could influence public opinion and political discourse.
The political situation in the country may also impact the lives of Ukrainian emigrants, of whom there are over a million. This is despite the fact that they already contribute to the German economy in sectors such as healthcare, logistics, construction, and IT.
The AfD consistently claims that aid to refugees is excessively generous and burdensome for the budget, proposing cuts or even the elimination of unemployment benefits. Additionally, stricter income and asset checks may be introduced to limit the number of Ukrainian refugees eligible for benefits.
It is also noted that the government, under the influence of right-wing parties, may cut funding for integration programs, including language courses and adaptation initiatives, shifting the focus towards encouraging migrants to achieve self-sufficiency more quickly.
The rise in popularity of the AfD, known for its anti-immigrant rhetoric, could alter Germans' attitudes towards Ukrainian emigrants. While Ukrainians still receive significant support in Germany, an increase in xenophobia may worsen the social climate. In regions where the AfD has more influence, local refugee support programs may be reduced.
Political changes may also affect Ukrainian families with children, as the publication notes: "budget cuts could undermine school programs aimed at integrating migrants, including specialized classes for children. Ukrainian children may face an increased risk of indirect discrimination or biased treatment."
Source: nv.