The situation in the Lyman direction is very complicated, as the establishment of footholds by Russian occupiers on the Black Horse River poses a significant threat to the Ukrainian Defense Forces.
Military expert, retired Colonel of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Sergey Grabskiy, discussed this in an interview with Politeka Online.
The expert emphasized that any crossing of a water barrier represents a considerable success for the adversary, and it cannot be said that the situation in the Lyman direction is stable at this time. It is also too early to talk about any major changes in the situation.
"What could be the next step? It is absolutely clear that the adversary will advance from Ivanivka toward Sviatohirsk in order to reach the banks of the Siverskyi Donets River, thus occupying this area.
Essentially, the adversary attempted to do this in the previous campaign, back in the spring of 2022, by breaking through there, as this creates a threat to the Sloviansk-Kramatorsk grouping," – stated Sergey Grabskiy.
The expert reminded that since 2022, the adversary has a clear objective to occupy the entire territory of the Luhansk and Donetsk regions, and by creating a threat to the Sloviansk-Kramatorsk grouping of Ukrainian Defense Forces, they will achieve their intermediate goal.
"However, the ratio of resources they have here and those available in the Pokrovsk direction is incompatible, meaning that while the adversary's actions may occur, the consequences will be somewhat different," – added Sergey Grabskiy.