If Russia defeats Ukraine, the U.S. will be forced to spend an additional $808 billion on defense — significantly more than the current support for Kyiv.
In her article, Foreign Affairs analyst Elaine McCasker discusses the potential costs for the United States if Russia prevails over Ukraine and positions its troops along NATO's borders. According to her estimates, over the next five years, the U.S. will need to increase defense spending by $808 billion — roughly seven times the funds already allocated for assistance to Ukraine.
Experts explain that a defeat for Kyiv could lead to catastrophic security consequences for Europe. Without U.S. support, Ukraine will lack the resources to continue its fight. By 2026, Ukraine will lose the ability to effectively counter Russia due to depleting air defense systems, allowing the Kremlin to conduct large-scale bombings of infrastructure. The absence of an effective military will pave the way for a Russian invasion of Kyiv and beyond — towards NATO's borders.
Afterward, with control over Ukraine, Russia will be able to deploy additional combat units along the borders with Poland and other NATO countries, significantly increasing the threat to Europe. The U.S. will have to bolster its military presence in Europe, which will require enormous expenditures: over 270,000 new troops, enhanced defenses in Europe, new aircraft and drone technologies, air defense systems, and naval equipment. Overall, these costs could exceed $808 billion.
Source: foreignaffairs.