The new president of the USA could significantly alter the global order by proposing alternative models of international relations that challenge existing liberal principles.
According to the Financial Times, one possible scenario suggests that under Trump's leadership, the USA may reach agreements with Russia and China, granting them spheres of influence while focusing on controlling its own region. In this case, Trump might impose a peace agreement on Ukraine, easing sanctions against Russia and fostering cooperation with China through trade agreements. This would lead to a weakening of the positions of US allies in Europe and Asia, forcing them to address defense issues independently.
Another scenario posits that trade and political tensions could escalate into conflicts. This, in turn, may trigger unexpected wars. China, Russia, or North Korea could take advantage of the chaos, initiating armed conflicts that the USA would be compelled to engage in, reminiscent of the world wars of the 20th century.
Another likely outcome is a state of anarchy without leaders. "America First" could create a leadership vacuum in international affairs, leading to an increase in civil conflicts in various countries. In such an environment, populist movements that undermine liberal democracy would gain strength, and "violent anarchy" would spread across the globe.
Another scenario involves the USA withdrawing from global trade organizations and implementing protectionist policies. As a result, the EU and China would strengthen their economic ties, and the global integration of Southern countries with the Chinese economy would intensify. Under such conditions, the use of the dollar as the world's currency would significantly decline.
In the most optimistic scenario for Trump, his "America First" policy could lead to economic prosperity in the USA, an improved investment climate, and technological leadership. Europeans and Japanese would significantly increase their defense spending, helping to maintain the balance of power on the global stage. The USA would find itself at the peak of its power, and Trump would gain recognition as a leader acknowledged not only by America but by the entire world.
Source: ft.